Introduction
The Aviation Industry is staging a strong comeback with passenger numbers up and more aircrafts in the sky. With countries opening up their borders and relaxing quarantine rules, it is without a doubt that air travel will resume to a financially sustainable level. Currently, domestic air travel within the US, China and Australia are at their highest levels. Airlines are unveiling new aircrafts such as the Airbus A321 Neo as well as remodelling cabins ahead of the expected return to normality.
The current situation: safeguards against coronavirus
Currently, it is not mandatory to be fully vaccinated in order to travel. However, masks are mandatory and must be kept on during the entire flight. The captain of the plane has the right to offload any passenger if he or she fails to comply with these measures. Many countries do however require a negative COVID test 48-72 hours before passengers’ flights.
As a precedent, Qatar airways operated the World's First Fully COVID-19 Vaccinated Flight on the 6th April 2021 and will carry only vaccinated crew and passengers on board, with passengers also serviced by fully vaccinated staff at check-in.
Currently, multiple major airports around the world are using biometric and facial recognition software to screen people as they pass through immigration. These technologies reduce the person-to-person interaction eroding the need to handle passports, boarding passes and IDs.
In addition, public health authorities have issued guidelines to operators to ensure regular cleanings, adequate hand and respiratory hygiene, and regular risk assessments identifying sensible measures that should be in place.
What will the future of the aviation industry look like?
A number of fundamental shifts have arisen as a result of the pandemic. By responding swiftly to the shifts in a decisive manner, carriers should be able to look beyond the pandemic and adapt to dramatic demographic changes in the future. Such shifts include:
The increasing prominence of leisure trips in fueling the long-term recovery of the industry, seeing as business travel is gradually redundant as remote working, flexible working arrangements and the trend of digitalisation grows prominent.
Ticket price increases are a given as a result of staggering debt levels, prompting a larger role for the government in the sector. Airlines had to borrow sums of financial resources to stay afloat and cope with the relatively high daily cash burn rates, calling for state-provided aid, credit lines and bond issuances from the government
With increasing state interference, airlines will be looking to work with regulators to set standards in accordance with authorities, such as reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions, greater labor flexibility, in return for more resilience against future shocks.
Airfreight will see undersupply, seeing as the unprofitability of cargo businesses has led airlines to relinquish their fleets. This has been a lifeline for the aviation industry, yet this trend will change when COVID-19 subsides.
The outlook for pilots and aspiring pilots
Kit Darby, an industry expert and retired airline captain specializing in forecasting pilot hiring, projects that significant future annual pilot retirements will drive demand for pilots. Airlines are hiring pilots ahead of a post-pandemic pilot shortage due to a number of reasons:
Retirements averaging 4,100 pilots per year will outpace the current capabilities of the flight training industry.
The return to normal growth will require twice as many new pilots.
A shortage of 12,000 pilots is expected by 2023 due to COVID-related early retirements and mandatory retirements.
Sources:
Writer: Shen Tan & Angela Chan
Editor: Angela Chan
Thumbnail: Soham Chopra & Alicia Fok
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